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Dear Investors, “The trick is not to learn to trust your gut feelings, but rather to discipline yourself to ignore them. Stand by your stocks as long as the fundamental story of the company hasn’t changed.”- Peter Lynch. In the past three decades, the capital markets have faced many adversities and, from all events, the markets have emerged stronger than ever, and it will do so this time too. The silver lining of the Covid-19 crisis is the dramatic fall in equity valuations, which enables investor to buy quality stocks at rates that, have traditionally contributed to long-term sustained rebounds. For equities, April was a bounce-back month; global markets recovered sharply from the lows of March, as the central banks and governments around the world have come out with a slew of monetary and fiscal measures to curb economic downturns. FY21 started on a volatile note for the equities and other risky asset classes, with India and many world economies remaining in a prolonged period of lockdown. This has changed the fundamental dynamics of demand / supply and is projected to adversely impact the economy and company earnings. Interesting trends emerged in domestic equity markets following a steep downturn in March; stocks recovered sharply and reported a return of ~15 per cent for Nity50, with global equity market returns also on similar lines, volatility index(VIX) which reached 80+ levels in March , subsequently dropped below 40, while FPI outflows declined from $8.4 billion (March) to $503 million (April). Positive news flows around the development of COVID-19 vaccines together with Covid-19 graph flattening globally, attractive valuation across multiple sectors provided a motivating backdrop for Indian markets to recover the March 20 losses. We expect the impact of earnings slowdown and economic downturn to be largely priced in, while the impact of strong policy stimulus is gradually emerging. As the Covid-19 scenario plateaus, the expectations of the FII / FPI to return to emerging markets, and India in particular, are not unfounded on the back of humongous global liquidity and low interest rate scenarios; while steady SIP flows will continue to support the market in the short term.
https://wealthadvisorzmumbai.blogspot.com/2020/05/advice-from-wise-may-2020.html |
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Monetary Policy : Agile RBI fights economic slowdown
In an effort to support the ailing economy from the negative impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, the RBI on 22nd May announced a series of measures, along with a cut in repo and reverse rate by 40bps to 4% and 3.35%; a basis point is 0.01 percentage point. In a span of just 2 months MPC has now reduced the policy rate by 115 bps.
The advancing of its MPC meet and the additional measures in shape of liquidity expansion, support to exports and imports and continuation of accommodative stance displays RBIs agility and readiness to mitigate the negative effect of COVID-19 along with focus on growth.
Domestic economic activity had been severely impacted on the back of the lock-down and the only silver lining is provided by agriculture, with the summer sowing of rice, pulses and oilseeds in the country progressing well. The GDP growth is indicated to contract sharply as the drop in economic activity has been higher than expectation. Moderation in inflation as witnessed in recent months indicates that inflation though likely to remain elevated in 1st half of the CY will likely to ease in 2nd half, thus leaving scope for further monetary accommodation.
RBI policy highlights
• Repo rate reduced by 40bps from 4.40% to 4.00% and Reverse repo rate reduced by 40bps
from 3.75% to 3.35%.
• Bank rate and Marginal Standing Facility (MSF), stands adjusted at 4.25%.
• Continuation with accommodative stance.
• An extension of 3 more months for Moratorium on term loan, till 31st August, 2020.
• Relaxation on asset classification as NPAs till 31st August, 2020.
• SRF of Rs 150bn to SIDBI extended by additional 90 days.
• Line of credit extension of Rs 150bn to EXIM Bank for a period of 90 days.
• Relaxation of guidelines in Consolidated Sinking Fund (CSF) of State Governments.
Analysis
The cut in repo rates was in line with the market expectation, as the movement of the yield curve indicates that most of rate cut was priced in by the market. Going forward we count on another 50bps rate cut within the coming months, if inflation stays tepid. RBI focus will be concentrated on revival of growth. The extension of moratorium period bodes well to relieve stress of the borrowers, but impact on the rise of NPAs and provisioning by the lenders is to be carefully noted. Expectations that RBI may come up with OMOs for G-Secs and SDLs will bode well in reduction of the elevated spreads and limit the spike in yields. Range bound movements in the yield curve is foreseen in near term, with a gradual shift downwards
Strategy
Surplus liquidity in the system may increase the demand for high quality corporate bonds in the short to medium end of the curve and an expectation of spread contraction is high going forward. We continue with our stance on being overweight on conservative strategies, and reiterate our focus being on risk adjusted return in regards to fixed income portfolios. We maintain preference for AAA accruals funds and exposures in fixed income space can be taken through Banking & PSU Debt funds, high-quality Short-term funds and AAA Corporate Bond Funds.
https://wealthadvisor100.blogspot.com/2020/06/monetary-policy-agile-rbi-fights.html |
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The World This Week – 5th June 2020 to 12th June 2020
Indian Equity Summary-
Benchmark indices ,Nifty 50 and Sensex closed in red and fell by 1.67% and 1.48% on a WoW basis, after registering gains for two successive weeks. The fall in the indices was majorly triggered by the concerns over the surge in domestic Covis-19 cases and possibility of longer than expected economic recovery. Most of the Sectoral indices ended in red on a WoW basis, with BSE Metals and BSE Bankex being the worst performing indices by recording losses of 4.27% and 2.41%.
On macro-economic front, Retail food inflation stood at 9.28% in May 2020 and Industrial production contracted by 55.5% in April 2020.On the Global front as expected the Fed kept rate unchanged at 0% -0.25% during policy-meeting held on 10th June 2020 and projected a 5% growth in 2021.Going forward, global factors like development on the US -China relationship front , any resurgence of Covid-19 cases globally, as economies have started opening up and will continue to dictate the trend of the domestic equity market. We expect the trading range for Nifty between 9600-10,200 in the near term.
Indian Debt Market-
Government bond prices was mildly positive as the yield on the latest 10-year benchmark 5.79% 2030 paper settled at 5.80% on Jun 12 compared with 5.82% on Jun 05.
Reserve Bank of India announced the auction of 91 days, 182 day and 364 day Government of India Treasury Bills of Rs 15,000 Crore , Rs 16,000 Crore and Rs14,000 Crore, aggregating face value Rs 45,000 Crore to be conducted on 17th June,2020.
State Governments have announced the sale of their securities by way of an auction,
We expect the 10 year benchmark yield to trade between 5.70-5.90% in near term.
Domestic News
As per the limited data released by the Finance ministry showed that annual retail food inflation eased to 9.28% in May, from 10.5% in April.
The net financial assets of Indian households gathered pace in FY20 to 7.7% of GDP against 6.5% in FY19, according to an article in Reserve Bank of India’s monthly bulletin.
India’s industrial production shrank by a record 55.5% in April from the year earlier with manufacturing crashing 64.3%, as computed from data released by the government.
India’s foreign exchange reserves rose $8.2 billion in the week of June 5 and has now crossed the milestone $500 billion mark for the first time in country’s history.
Overseas borrowings by Indian companies fell 68.5% to $996.04 million in April, according to data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
International News
China registered its first expansion since December as the Industrial output growth quickened to 4.4% in May YoY, against Reuters expectation of 5.0% rise from 3.9% in April.
US consumer sentiment index increased to a reading of 78.9 from 72.3 in May according to a survey by the University of Michigan’s .
According to the US Labor Department ,U.S. import prices rose by 1.0% in May after falling 2.6% in April thus recording the largest gain since February 2019.
US Initial claims of unemployment totaled 1.54 million, compared with the 1.6 million expected from economists surveyed by Dow Jones. Applications for loans to purchase a home rose 5% in the week ending 5th June as compared to the previous week and were 13% higher than a year ago, according to the US Mortgage Bankers Association.
UK’s economy contracted by 20.4% in April from March, shrinking by ~6%. It was 24.5% smaller than in April 2019.
https://wealthadvisor10.tumblr.com/post/621823816030715904/the-world-this-week-5th-june-2020-to-12th-june |
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